Why Evolution Is True

Thursday: Hili dialogue

Welcome to Thursday, March 26, 2026, and National Nougat Day, a genus that apparently includes Nutella. Remember that the first two ingredients in Nutella are sugar (50–55%) and palm oil (~20%), so be careful out there! It’s also National Spinach Day, Spinach Festival Day (aren’t they the same?), and Science Appreciation Day (science helps explain children’s aversion to spinach): Spinach happens to be one of the few vegetables I like, and never bridled at being served it as a kid. (I think kids don’t like it because they perceive it as bitter, and we have evolved to avoid bitter plants since they often contain toxins—though spinach doesn’t). Here’s a compendium of Popeye cartoons in which he gains strength from spinach. The first one is from 1933: the first time Popeye ate spinach on the screen. Reader Will reminded me, along with someone else, that it’s National Science Appreciation Day, and sent a photo with this caption: Attached is a picture of my wife Sara and me at the March for Science in 2017 with our Keeping It Real Since AD 1021 sign. Readers are welcome to mark notable events, births, or deaths on this day by consulting the March 26 Wikipedia page. Da Nooz: *A summary of yesterday’s war news from It’s Noon in Israel: Iran has set an extremely high bar for ceasefire negotiations. The IRGC’s demands include the closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf, reparations for strikes on Iran, a Hormuz transit fee arrangement, an end to strikes on Hezbollah, the lifting of all sanctions, and the preservation of its missile program. A U.S. official called the demands “ridiculous and unrealistic.” The two sides are not in direct contact—messages are passing through Arab intermediaries. Yesterday, Lebanon declared Iran’s ambassador persona non grata, ordering him to leave by March 29 and canceling his diplomatic status over interference in Lebanese internal affairs. The Lebanese government also recalled its own ambassador from Tehran for consultations. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s leadership and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri personally asked the Iranian ambassador to stay. The Times reported last night that the British Navy will lead the “Hormuz Coalition” to reopen the straits. Britain will also deploy mine‑clearing capabilities alongside the United States and France. According to The New York Times, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has urged Trump in recent days to press on with the war against Iran, calling it a “historic opportunity” to reshape the Middle East. In a series of conversations over the past week, bin Salman pushed for accelerating military action—including strikes on energy infrastructure and possible ground operations—arguing that only regime change could eliminate the “long-term threat” to the Gulf. After pressure from Washington to take action on the issue, the government will approve the establishment of a unit in the Ministry of Defense to deal with the hilltop youth, with a budget of 130 million shekels for the next three years. Now, on to the details. (Their bolding.): When Netanyahu walked into Donald Trump’s office for the first time during the former’s second term, he brought a small gift: a golden beeper embedded in a piece of cedar, dedicated to “our great friend and greatest ally.” Trump was delighted. What followed was a warm meeting, described by the Israeli delegation as “beyond our expectations and dreams.” The lesson? Trump likes gifts. Of all the Israeli lessons, and Israel has taught them many, Iran seems to have taken this one to heart. Trump revealed yesterday that Iran had sent him a gift—and that he liked it. They know their recipient, he said, because “it’s worth a lot of money,” and is supposedly related to oil and gas. But here is the most important part: the gift, he suggested, showed him that he is “talking to the right people.” Unless that box contained the comatose body of Mojtaba Khamenei, I’m skeptical. Given Trump’s vacillation on the war, as with everything else, who knows that’s going on, and whether his intend to the the war is serious. At any rate, the next piece shows that Iran won’t end the war except on its own terms. *The WSJ reports that Iran is playing “hardball” with the U.S. as a lot of countries are trying to broker an end to the war. Mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are pushing for a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials, but Tehran has displayed defiance over the possibility of diplomacy and both sides remain far apart. The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which centers largely on previous Trump administration demands of Tehran. Iran’s state-run Press TV broadcaster said Tehran had rejected the U.S. proposal and set out its own conditions for a deal, including reparations and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Arab states are growing alarmed by Trump’s eagerness to do a deal. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying Trump to stick with the war until Iran is sufficiently weakened that it won’t pose a threat. Separately, authorities suspect Iran recruited individuals online for terror attacks in Europe, and set up a bogus terror group to claim responsibility for attacks on Jewish schools, synagogues and companies linked to Israel. Here’s their summary of Trump’s 15 point plan: The document, sent through intermediaries, calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and end any enrichment on Iranian soil, suspend its ballistic-missile work, curb support for proxies and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to the officials. In return, Iran would have nuclear-related sanctions lifted, the officials said, and the U.S. would assist—while monitoring—the country’s civilian nuclear program. The plan broadly reflects the U.S. proposal discussed with Iran before the war started Feb. 28, when President Trump accused Tehran of not negotiating in good faith. Iran’s new, harder-line leadership says it now has higher demands of Washington, such as seeking reparations for weeks of attacks. And here’s Iran’s demands: Iran is demanding an end to attacks by the U.S. and Israel as well as concrete guarantees preventing the recurrence of the war, Press TV quoted the official as saying. The country also wants recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation for damages caused by the weekslong conflict. Tehran also wants Israel and the U.S. to stop attacks on its allies across the region, the official said. Those two demands are so far apart you could drive a gazillion trucks through them. Iran’s demands are even stronger than the demands that Trump rejected before the U.S. and Israel started their attack. Note that the Saudis and UAE leaders don’t want a deal; they want the Iranian regime destroyed. for they know what that a revived theocracy will not only expoort terror, but perhaps keep striking targets in countries like those two.  I think the U.S. terms are too easy, and I don’t want this war to end without surrender and regime changes. Is that unrealistic? Maybe, but it’s a just ending to a just war. *Two authors at the WaPo (Karen Kramer, deputy director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran, and Esfandiar Aban, the center’s director of research) tell us what we need to know: “Iran is already ramping up its next war. Guess who the ‘enemy’ is.” Surprise: it’s the Iranian people themselves! The bombs are still falling, and the Islamic Republic’s future is uncertain, but one thing is already clear: The Iranian regime is preparing for its next war — against its own citizens. In the past few days, three young men arrested for participating in the January protests have already been executed — a chilling signal of what may lie ahead. The danger to the Iranian people cannot be overstated. Confronted not only with external conflict but also with a population that has repeatedly taken to the streets in defiance, the regime is determined to settle scores with its domestic critics and extinguish any internal challenge to its rule. Its willingness to inflict violence upon its own people has been demonstrated time and again over the past 47 years. But never has it been more intense than during the nationwide protests in January, when security forces gunned down thousands in the streets over a matter of days. Now facing an existential threat, the regime is angry and armed and sees enemies all around. That’s correct: the regime has said more than once in the last several weeks that any protestors will be summarily shot in the streets. More: The warning signs are unmistakable. Armed Basij patrol neighborhoods. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sent text messages to citizens warning that “a blow even stronger than that of January 8” awaits those who protest. Hundreds of arrests have taken place across the country since the current conflict began, according to research by the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). The detained include not only January protesters tracked down by the authorities but also activists, students, members of religious and ethnic minorities, and ordinary citizens. Sources inside Iran report checkpoints in Tehran, Mashhad and other cities, where security forces stop individuals, confiscate their phones and search for “suspicious” content. Iranian judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi has made the regime’s position explicit: “Individuals who collaborate with the enemy in any manner are considered part of the enemy’s forces and will be dealt with accordingly.” In practice, the regime defines “collaboration” so broadly as to encompass any form of dissent — activists, lawyers defending political prisoners, doctors who treated wounded protesters, members of religious or ethnic minorities, or simply individuals whose private messages or social media posts run afoul of the state. For many, the outcome is grimly predictable: They will be arrested, most likely tortured and quickly tried without independent lawyers or due process in special revolutionary courts by handpicked hard-line judges. Many will face espionage or national security charges, which can carry the death penalty. In this environment, the risk of mass arbitrary detention is acute. Even more alarming is the prospect of mass executions, especially as those arrested face a high likelihood of forced “confessions” extracted under torture. Hundreds of such confessions were broadcast over state TV after the January protests. *In contrast to the rest of the article in the NYT, Bret Stephens has an optimistic take on the US and Israel vs. Iran. It’s given in his column, “The war is going better than you think” (archived here). And that’s because what you “think” about the war is largely conditioned by the liberal mainstream media, like the anti-Israel NYT! He gives a lot of comparisons: As Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, told NBC’s Kristen Welker over the weekend, “We’ve never seen this level of incompetence in war-making in this country’s history.” Really? Let’s take a tour of some of the recent history. During the 1991 Operation Desert Storm against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, a campaign that is widely considered a brilliant military success, the U.S.-led coalition lost 75 aircraft, 42 of them in combat. In this conflict, four manned aircraft have been destroyed, three to friendly fire and one in an accident. Not a single manned plane has yet been lost over Iran. The U.S. air and land campaign in that operation lasted a full six weeks. Today it’s remembered as a lightning-fast war. The current conflict with Iran is less than four weeks old. In the 1989-90 invasion of Panama, whose military phase lasted a few days, the United States lost 23 soldiers, with 325 more wounded. So far in this war, U.S. losses are 13 dead. Among the more than 230 wounded, most have swiftly returned to duty. During the Persian Gulf crisis that began with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, the U.S. economy went into recession and the Dow fell by about 13 percent before the allied air war began. Since conflict with Iran began last June with Operation Midnight Hammer, the Dow is up by 9 percent as of Tuesday morning. At the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States made a failed decapitation strike against Saddam Hussein and his senior leadership, some of whom became leaders of the insurgency. In this war, much of Iran’s top leadership was killed on the first day and there is still no proof of life from the new supreme leader. Yousef Pezeshkian, the son of the current president, has written that if Iran can’t prevent the continued assassination of its leaders, “we will lose the war.” Between 1987 and 1988, in the final stages of the so-called tanker war, the Reagan administration reflagged Kuwaiti tankers and had the U.S. Navy escort them out of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian mine nearly sank an American frigate. The conflict wound down after the United States sank a handful of Iranian navy ships. This time around, we have destroyed almost all of Iran’s navy with no naval losses of our own. In 1991, Iraq fired roughly 40 missiles toward Israel. Hardly any were intercepted despite the deployment of Patriot batteries there. In this war, Israel is registering an interception rate of 92 percent against more than 400 missiles. Iran’s overall rate of fire has dropped from 438 ballistic missiles on the first day of the war to 21 on Monday. Drone fire has also declined from 345 to 75 for the same dates. In the months leading up to the second Iraq war, the George W. Bush administration made a case based on erroneous information that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. In the current war, there is no question that some 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium lies stashed and buried in Iran — possibly enough, with further enrichment and conversion into uranium metal, for 11 nuclear bombs. If the outrage of the Iraq war is that Hussein didn’t have W.M.D. capabilities, is it now supposed to be somehow more outrageous that Iran does? One of the worst mistakes of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was the attempt by U.S. administrators to remake societies in both countries — well-intended efforts with some noble results that nonetheless were beyond our grasp. In this war, despite some varying rhetoric from President Trump, the goal has been reasonably clear and consistent: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons or other means to menace its neighbors. As for regime change, we hope the Iranian people use the opportunity of their leadership’s weakness to seize their own destiny. But we won’t do it for them. There are more, but I’ve left them out. Here’s Stephens’s conclusion: I am not blind to the Trump administration’s failures in planning, particularly its unwillingness to make a stronger public case for war and get more allies on our side before the campaign began. I am also purposely comparing the war with Iran to past wars of similar scale, rather than our true military fiascos in Vietnam, Korea and the two world wars — in which tens of thousands of Americans died due to poor tactical planning and bad strategy. Still, if past generations could see how well this war has gone compared with the ones they were compelled to fight at a frightening cost, they would marvel at their posterity’s comparative good fortune. They would marvel, too, at our inability to appreciate the advantages we now possess. It is good to keep some historical perspective, and that’s pretty much what Stephens does.  What has changed in the last ten years is the anti-Americanism and anti-Israelism of the American Left, which makes people more pessimistic than is warranted. And of course there are those pesky gas prices. . . *Have you thought about Ukraine lately? Over at the conservative National Review, we hear that “The tide turns for Ukraine” (archived post). You’ve probably heard cynical observers of the U.S.-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic of Iran insist that the only true victor in this war will be Russia. If this is what victory looks like, though, Russia was better off mired in a stalemated quagmire. It turns out that Ukraine isn’t bereft of any “cards” to play in this war. In fact, it’s got a full deck at its disposal. “The biggest thing coming out of Ukraine is the rapid pace of innovation,” said Space Force Lieutenant General Steven Whitney in a recent congressional testimony. Kyiv has developed the capacity to adapt, iterating and fielding both new high-tech weapons and low-cost defensive munitions at a rapid pace. “Their level of innovation is out of this world,” he marveled. That ingenuity has transformed Ukraine, in the minds of its detractors inside the Trump administration, from a charity case and a drag on U.S. resources into a sought-after partner in the battle against Iranian forces and the creator of weapons systems that the U.S. and its Middle East partners only wish they had at their disposal. And what about the war? In February, Elon Musk’s SpaceX implemented a whitelisting system that cut Russian forces off from accessing its Starlink satellite-based internet services. All of a sudden, Russian commanders could no longer access live footage of the battlespace and lost communications with troops in the field. The move coincided with a Ukrainian offensive that is still advancing eastward. “Since then, Ukraine says it has retaken roughly 150 square miles of territory in the southern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where Russian forces had previously been advancing rapidly,” the Wall Street Journal reported last week. Indeed, for the better part of a month, while the world’s eyes were locked on the Persian Gulf, Ukrainian forces have managed to advance on several fronts, retaking contested and strategically valuable territory from Russia’s occupiers. With the onset of spring, Russia, too, is back on offense. But while Moscow’s soldiers are making “some tactical gains at significant cost,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, its strategic objectives remain out of reach for now. And the “cost” of this offensive is steep. Kyiv-skeptical elements inside the Trump administration are still trying to force Ukraine into a supplicative posture, and Ukraine is still resisting Washington’s efforts to impose defeat on it. But those who saw Ukraine as little more than a freeloading alms-seeker draining the West’s resources toward no greater strategic end must increasingly rely on baseless prejudices to justify that outlook. Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine won’t end anytime soon, and there will be more twists of fortune to come in a war that’s been full of them. But anyone who told themselves that Ukraine’s defeat was only a matter of time allowed the wish to father the thought. I was one of those pessimists, and am glad to hear a more optimistic take. Meanwhile in Dobrzyn, Hili’s inspecting the garden: Hili: I wonder whether this peach will have any fruit already this year. Andrzej: I’m not certain, but I can’t exclude it. In Polish: Hili: Ciekawe, czy ta brzoskwinia będzie miała już w tym roku jakieś owoce. Ja: Nie jestem pewien, ale nie mogę tego wykluczyć. ******************* From Things With Faces, a sad potato: From Funny and Strange Signs: From Animal Antics (it should be “lie down”): And an extra photo from my FB feed, which, sadly, is not real but an AI fake (it is, after all an ad for matzos). But I wish it were real! The ladies, of course, are all Jewish, and Gal Gadot was in the IDF for two years. I didn’t know Pink was Jewish, but that is the case: she had a Jewish mom, ergo by Jewish Roolz say she is one of us. “Pesach” is simply Passover, which this year extends from sundown on the evening of April 1 until Thursday, April 9. Masih is busy posting against the Iranian regime; she’s clearly in favor of the war against her natal country: They want to hang them in Iran for protesting. Will you stand with us and be their voice? In the middle of war the regime in iran hanged a19 year old wrestler, and now they are pushing forward more death sentences against those arrested during the uprising. This young Baha’i… pic.twitter.com/RzNfIiEqTf — Masih Alinejad (@AlinejadMasih) March 24, 2026 From Luana, not a fan of DEI “ideology” that leads to stuff like this: Twelve years ago, San Francisco killed 8th-grade Algebra in the name of equity. Advanced math enrollment (including AP Calculus) dropped, and racial gaps expanded. China graduates ~1.3 million engineers yearly vs. just 130,000 in the U.S. Last night, the SF school board finally… — Katie Miller (@KatieMiller) March 25, 2026 Found on Twitter, but not through doomscrolling. People don’t ever think about this comparison: Tens of thousands of Jews have lost relatives that were murdered by Gazans on October 7th. Not one of us decided to ram a car full of deadly explosives into a US Mosque. If heaven forbid someone would, that would be morally inexcusable and all Jews would rightfully condemn… https://t.co/NyCYmPfpPe pic.twitter.com/WiJ8EVQ2mD — Rabbi Poupko (@RabbiPoupko) March 13, 2026 Two from my feed. First, a kitty who doesn’t want to wet his paws: The footage is from the Netherlands … Simpson, who was once a stray cat, now has a home but hasn’t forgotten his past. Every day, he secretly sneaks out to meet his old friends . When returning home, he carefully moves without stepping on the ground so his paws don’t get wet… pic.twitter.com/aFX6lNZ0dy — Dailymeow (@Dailymeoww1) March 25, 2026 Science girl comes through again; this is damn funny: When winning matters more than rules of the game pic.twitter.com/Xe7QrfyA05 — Science girl (@sciencegirl) March 25, 2026 One I reposted from The Auschwitz Memorial: Viktor Frankl, survivor of several camps including Auschwitz, went on to achieve fame, not least through his book “Man in Search of Meaning.”https://t.co/H7UVO5ZQr8 https://t.co/0HlTKCuRVY — Jerry Coyne (@Evolutionistrue) March 26, 2026 . . . and two from Dr. Cobb.  First, beautiful bracelets, nearly five millennia old: Stunning 4,600 year-old silver bracelets with inlaid semi-precious stones in the shape of butterflies! They belonged to Egyptian Queen Hetepheres. From her tomb at Giza. Old Kingdom, 4th Dynasty, c. 2613-2494 BC.Grand Egyptian Museum, Cairo by me#Archaeology — Alison Fisk (@alisonfisk.bsky.social) 2026-03-25T09:45:55.491Z Of this Matthew comments, “This is edited by Chuck Workman (no, me neither). V good, but not all great films are from the USA! (Yes, there’s Metropolis and some spaghetti westerns in there, but that’s about it).” I’m not quite sure what he means, but how many of these scenes have you seen? Cinema will find a way. — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) 2025-12-06T15:42:40.642Z .