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The GuardianApr 18, 2026International

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Donald Trump's social media posts regarding ceasefire negotiations with Iran were preceded by massive surges in oil futures trading.

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
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tl;dr

Massive, perfectly timed bets on prediction markets and oil futures preceded major escalations in the US-Iran conflict, sparking concerns about potential insider trading by government officials or individuals with access to non-public intelligence.

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